To win big at trading, what is needed is to do the opposite of crowd. But how?

Posted by Varun Shah
— 3 min read
To win big at trading, what is needed is to do the opposite of crowd. But how?

It is common knowledge and everyone knows, that you need to do things differently to achieve different and probably better outcome. But how to do it if everyone knows it. Where to start? How to think differently?

Lets explore this idea in the realm of trading;

To do something opposite of everyone is a difficult problem to solve. Charlie munger once said, if the problem is difficult, "invert, always invert."

To invert, lets understand some common attributes of people or mass psychology. If you start a little digging into the common psychology or talk to lets say 10-15 people you know, everyone has some common objectives.

  1. EXTREME GREED
  2. BETTING WITH 0.1% CAPITAL
  3. They treat trading as a lottery, not a business. (get rich quick)
  4. Most people diversify (reduce risk). Diversification keeps you rich. Concentration makes you rich. (understand the difference)
  5. They hate to book losses.
  6. Impatience. Compulsive behaviour to click endlessly. (thanks to captivating sophisticated platforms)

If we invert, the result we get is,

  1. Even the most smartest people you know would fall for greed. Most people treat market as a lottery machine. Think in binary. Either win big or lose it all. Nobody wants to treat it like a business and have realistic expectations.
  2. They bet a very tiny % of their networth. Not right orientation coupled with lack of knowledge. Betting a tiny % of your networth in market adds a lot of pressure on the required performance. Because your absolute result is going to be tiny even if you beat the market. For instance, 20% of thousand dollars is 200 dollars. Not a meaningful return, but still a 20%. 20% of $100k is $20k. Same % but quite satisfactory money in absolute terms. But nobody bets 100k even when they have it. This happens because of lack of knowledge and experience.
  3. Everyone wants to get rich overnight. So nobody thinks in terms of probability. People bet on junk assets/companies/coins. The probability of getting rich there is miniscule. 99% of the times, you are going to lose money and get demotivated. You want to treat trading as a business. Not a lottery system.
  4. The problem is, nobody starts with a million dollars, so what to do? Lets say you got 20k dollars to invest. Now, if you invest in 10 different stocks, you are not going to enjoy any meaningful return anywhere. A few will go up, a few will go down, but your portfolio in the short term (few weeks/months) won't go anywhere. But investing 20k dollars into one stock is considered absurd. You wouldn't be protected. You could lose all your capital if the asset crashes. Here comes your strategy of placing a tight Stop Loss and % allocation of your total portfolio. But the most important thing is getting the conviction to bet big in one asset. Lots of stocks/coins move 5% in a month. Heck, lot of them move 5% in a day. If you can manage to find out, and even invest 10k of your 20k protfolio, its a $1000 return at 10% in just a month. If you can manage to do this 6-7 times a year and even get some drawdowns, its a crazy 30-40% return. Market beating done comfortably. Easier said than done.
  5. It's almost impossible to trade so much and not take losses. Losses are a part of the game. Idea is to not avoid the loss, but take it early. Smaller the loss, better your chance of bouncing back in the game and winning big. Your capital in trading is your lifeline. No capital means you are dead. Can't play the game unless you get some more capital from your other sources of income. You don't want to do that. It not only takes away your money, but also gives you PTSD.
  6. No matter, what timeframe you trade, if you can increase the time period for your strategy and have the patience to let it play out, it can make a huge difference to the pnl. Nobody has patience. Patience is a rare trait in this market.

If you keep making this list, you can stop doing losing things and make a really useful guide for trading.